EMERGING MARKETS – NET WINNERS FROM FALLING OIL PRICES
Oil reached its peak in the United States at over $140 a barrel in July of 2008. After the “Great Recession”, oil rose but did not get close to its peak of 2008. Conversely, as oil is priced globally in dollars and because of the strength of the US dollar, other countries saw oil peak […]
THINGS TO WATCH FOR IN 2015
It is always dangerous to make predictions, especially for an entire year. However, reasoned judgments should be considered for their potential impact on investments. Here are our general thoughts going into the New Year: 1) Vladimir Putin will not sit idly by as falling energy prices put pressure on the Russian economy. He currently has […]
BULL MARKET? – ONLY IF YOU ARE IN US LARGE COMPANIES
In 1998, the world experienced a strong dollar and a drop in oil prices. At that time, the only place to invest was in a few large cap stocks. We are seeing a complete replay of that scenario today. If you listen to the folks on CNBC, the stock market is in a bull market […]
THE CHESS MATCH OF THE CENTURY – OIL
Oil prices have been rocked over the past few weeks, dropping by more than 30% from their summer peak. This is great news for holiday travelers as gas prices are now under $3 a gallon. However, we are most interested in why oil prices are falling in order to determine if it is truly a […]
ABENOMICS: “THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES”
Today’s market headline: Japan officially in “Triple-Dip Reccession” Abe Shinzo became Prime Minister of Japan in September 2012 with a radical plan designed to reinvigorate the Japanese economy. His plan, referred to as Abenomics, called for a three -pronged approach to stimulate Japan’s economy using: fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. First, a little […]
JAPAN: KEYNES ON STEROIDS
John Maynard Keynes was a big believer that government should use tools to stabilize an economy. Over time, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has become more and more Keynesian in its approach to monetary policy. The Fed has used such tools at various times over the last 20 years to jump in during a crisis to […]
Volatility is back – re-pricing of risk and more importantly, opportunity!!
As the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) ends QE this month, volatility is back and risk is finally being re-priced. The Fed gave all of us a sense of complacency with the implementation of its QE program and now that complacency has evaporated. We believe volatility is higher than normal because it was suppressed by the Fed. […]
FALL OF AN INVESTMENT LEGEND – A LONG TIME COMING
Last week, the investment world was shocked by the announcement that Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO and the man often referred to as the “Bond King”, was leaving PIMCO to join Janus Capital. We have known Bill Gross, PIMCO and many former PIMCO portfolio managers for almost three decades. It has been more than […]
Opportunity Knocks – Emerging Markets
It was just a few years back when we would ask mutual fund representatives who visited our office what investments other advisors were utilizing in their clients’ portfolios. The answer that came back time and again was “most advisors have 40%-50% of their clients’ money in international funds with half that being in emerging markets […]
ARE INVESTORS TOO COMPLACENT?
Complacency, whether in the stock market, your job, your life, etc., is never a good thing. With the geopolitical news – Ukraine, Isis, European slowdown (Italy is in recession) – making headlines, it begs the question: Are investors too complacent about risk? One way to determine if investors are complacent is to look at […]