April 18 – Ground Hog Day – Again!
The Euro Crisis is ready to show its ugly head again. The short-term fix for Europe, which included the ECB dramatically expanding their balance sheet and banks buying sovereign debt, is starting to wear off. Over the next few weeks, there are some major European events that might spark a more significant European crisis: 1) […]
April 3 – Expect Higher Gas Prices Ahead
As we look out of our office at the BP station, we see the rapidly changing numbers as the price of gas continues higher. Not only is gasoline high, but diesel fuel is at a 31 month high. The impact of rising gas prices is as follows: 1) every one penny increase in retail gasoline […]
March 15 – The Battle Between Fear and Greed
The stock market is a great barometer for measuring both fear (2008-2009 crash) and greed (technology market in the late 1990’s). One such stock market related tool that can be used to measure fear in the market is the Chicago Board Option Exchange Market Volatility Index (the VIX Index). This index measures the implied volatility […]
March 6 – ECB'S new song – "A printing we will go, a printing we will go. Hi, ho the cherry-o, a printing we will go
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) completed its second round – a total of 3 rounds are expected – of its “quantitative easing” program, referred to as the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (“LTRO”). Over 800 banks in Europe took advantage of this LTRO by borrowing an additional 529.5 Billion Euro – $713.4 billion. These are three […]
February 17 – Today's Risk In The Market
Risk: is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss. The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists. When investing, risk is always involved. There is risk of loss of principal if an investment goes down in value. There is […]
February 2 – The Fed's Decision to Keep Rates Low
What Does It Mean? The Federal Reserve last week surprised everyone by extending its “exceptionally” low interest rate environment until late 2014. This is almost a year later than its previous forecast for interest rates. With many economists saying the economy was improving over the last few months, we have to wonder why the Federal […]
January 17 – Election Cycle Investment Strategy
There is much information suggesting that the stock market will have a great year because of the upcoming Presidential election. One of the reasons for this position is that the President – and to a lesser extent Congress – will do everything in their power to have the stock market rise so that they can […]
December 16 – A World Divided
Throughout the past couple of months, we have heard from analysts and experts that “despite the headwinds from Europe, the U.S. economy is doing well.” We have also heard “if it weren’t for the economic problems in Europe, the U.S. markets would be stronger.” We know there are major problems in Europe that have yet […]
November 30 – A Suckers Rally?
The market today feels like a tale of two worlds. In the United States, the holiday shopping season is off to a robust start. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 62% – above 50% means the economy is expanding – and ADP reported 206,000 new private sector jobs in November. In Europe, things […]
November 16 – More Europe
The European train is hitting Italy and is spreading to other European countries such as Belgium, Hungary, Spain and France. Things have not gotten better since our last update and, if anything, have gotten worse. We have attached a flowchart we created internally to assist us in determining the potential ramifications of the events currently […]