As we cross the halfway point of 2026, the headline stock indices remain elevated. However, a deeper look at the underlying data suggests that risk may be building beneath the surface.
In this mid-year market update, Jim Gore walks through THOR Wealth Management’s latest proprietary indicator readings to evaluate the current state of equity risk and fixed income. By analyzing the relative value between stocks and bonds, we can better understand where the most attractive opportunities lie today.
Finally, Jim provides a technical deep dive into the NYSE Composite. Despite prices remaining high, softening momentum indicators—specifically Chaikin Money Flow—suggest that the foundation of this market rally may be weakening
Jim reviews our proprietary THORdex indicator, which provides an objective reading on current equity risk levels. Today the THORdex is at 75.12 signally board risk in the US equity market.
Our fixed income risk measure is made up of 2 components (credit and duration). Today we see elevated risk in credit sensitive fixed income but lower risk opportunity in duration sensitive fixed income.
On a risk-adjusted basis, US bonds are more attractive than US equities.
Today we are seeing significant divergence in the NYSE technical analysis. We are seeing price continue to grind higher while CMF or “moneyflow” is falling.
If you go back long term, you can see that when CMF goes negative that has lead to a drop in the market. This highlights the risk of a market drop given the technical divergence and history of negative market outcomes when moneyflow turns negative.
When market prices are high but underlying momentum is weakening, passive investing strategies are uniquely vulnerable. At THOR Wealth Management, our active investment management approach relies on objective data—like Market Risk Indicators and relative asset class analysis—to proactively protect and grow our clients’ portfolios.
If you are concerned about building risks in the equity market and want to ensure your strategy is built for the second half of the year, a comprehensive financial plan can provide clarity. Reach out to our 100% employee-owned team today to discuss your portfolio.
